One of the most popular NFL trends that is frequently asked is how often does the public win against the spread. Surprisingly everyone seems to have a different answer with no concrete data to back up their claims. Who is the "Public" anyway? It's me, you and everyone acting as the majority or consensus. For statistical purposes, only NFL games with ~60% or more action on one side will be considered a public play. Pushes will be excluded.
For the 2011 NFL Regular Season, the public had a win-loss record of 98-112 against the spread (ATS) for a winning percentage of 46.7%, from a sample size of 210 games. The larger the sample, the more accurate your results will be, as variance will be lowered. Our database will be continuously updated after each NFL week is completed so click on the graph above or go to our NFL Stats page for the latest stats and trends.
Which teams does the public tend to favor the most?
- Overwhelming majority are favorites compared to underdogs, 176 vs 38 (82.2%) in 2011
- Popular teams like the Patriots, Packers, Cowboys, Steelers, etc.
- Teams that won and looked good the previous week